NewWildfireFuturesHow to deliver on a50-year vision movingfrom crisis to resilienceNational Association of State Fire Marshals (NASFM)August 18, 2026KATE DARGAN MARQUISktdargan@gmail.com
FROM CRISIS TO RESILIENCE:Who Am I…CONFIDENTIAL2WILDFIRE 50●Started as a firefighter in 1977 and spent my career across the fireservice—from the line and Air Attack to HazMat, training, campleadership, and serving as California’s Assistant and State FireMarshal.●Retired in 2009 and co-founded Intterra to improve situationalawareness for firefighters.●After 12 years in technology, joined the White House Office ofScience and Technology Policy to help shape national wildfireresilience policy.●For the past five years, helped build the Gordon and Betty MooreFoundation’s Wildfire Resilience Initiative.●I’m here to share nearly 50 years of experience—and advocate for aholistic, long-term national strategy that goes beyond suppression.CONFIDENTIAL2New Wildfire Futures
Vision & StrategyPolicy & LegislationCode EnforcementPrevention, Mitigation& OutreachLOCAL & STATEFire marshals have influenceacross all these activities.Who Are We…FROM CRISIS TO RESILIENCE:CONFIDENTIAL3New Wildfire Futures
We Need Change.CONFIDENTIAL4New Wildfire Futures
CONFIDENTIAL5New Wildfire FuturesWe Are the Change.
Our communities will become thebedrock of collective success.Our future depends on whatyou do in the next ten years.CONFIDENTIAL6New Wildfire Futures
A COMMON MISSIONIs Wildfire a Threat, Need, or Opportunity?CONFIDENTIAL7New Wildfire FuturesSource: Balch et al. (2024),ScienceBalch et al. (2025),BioRxiv pre-printThe fastest fires, less than 3%of all wildfires, account for89% of structure losses.Nearly 60% of wildfire acresin western US forestsbetween 2010 and 2020 wereecologically beneficial “goodfire”.BAD FIREGOOD FIREBAD FIREGOOD FIRE
More Fire is ComingBut we can take action to ensure a wildfire futurein which fire progressively becomesmore helpful and less harmful.CONFIDENTIAL8New Wildfire Futures
WHAT’S COMINGFires will get worse before they get better.CONFIDENTIALNew Wildfire Futures
WHAT’S COMINGFires will get worse before they get better.CONFIDENTIALNew Wildfire FuturesSource: Abatzoglou et al. (2021),Commun Earth EnvironFuels will get drier.0.50-2-10123Fuel Aridity (o)Prob. Density
WHAT’S COMINGFires will get worse before they get better.CONFIDENTIALNew Wildfire FuturesSource: Abatzoglou et al. (2021),Commun Earth EnvironFuels will get drier.0.50-2-10123Fuel Aridity (o)Prob. DensityTotal FFA (1000km2)% of forested landModel MedianObservedIndividual ModelWestern acreage will double.
Our water, our timber, our air, and our securityrely on beneficial fire.We must discover ways toreshape fire, not just fight it.CONFIDENTIAL12New Wildfire Futures
A 50-YearNational MissionWHERE WE NEED TO GOA path from disaster tosustained resilienceUnpredictableDisasters2025PredictableDisasters2035PredictableEvents2045ManageableEvents2055ManageableOpportunities2065ValuableOpportunities2075CONFIDENTIAL13New Wildfire Futures
CONFIDENTIAL14WILDFIRE 50CONFIDENTIAL14WILDFIRE 50Three Strategies,Two OutcomesWHAT DOES SUCCESS LOOK LIKE●Prepare and protect communities●Smarter wildfire suppression●Focused resource restorationCONFIDENTIAL14New Wildfire Futures●Zero community loss●Ecosystems thrive w/ beneficial fire}
CONFIDENTIAL15New Wildfire FuturesHow doesthis strategyplay out overmultiple decades?
Decade OneWHERE WE NEED TO GO2025-2035Unpredictable Disasters to Predictable Disasters●Fire behavior and community risk modeling●Community mitigation programs and targets●Fire technology innovations●Smarter suppression “Fire Intensity Management” concept(leverage the 60% western beneficial fire we have today)CONFIDENTIAL16New Wildfire Futures
Decade TwoWHERE WE NEED TO GO2035-2045Predictable Disaster to Predictable Events●Scale priority community mitigations to reduce loss●Change the wildfire narrative - less threat, more opportunity●Focus on landscape fuels in critical watersheds●Smarter suppression keeps at least 60% of wildfire beneficialCONFIDENTIAL17New Wildfire Futures
Decade ThreeWHERE WE NEED TO GO2045-2055Predictable Events to Manageable Events●More communities begin to reach “herd immunity”●More wildfire acres burn safely with less community loss●Media and public openly supporting wildfire need and value●Beneficial fire increases to at least 70% of total acres burnedCONFIDENTIAL18New Wildfire Futures
Decade FourWHERE WE NEED TO GO2055-2065Manageable Events to Manageable Opportunities●Mitigated communities are widespread and losses are minimal●Critical watersheds recover healthy functions●Widespread public demand for more beneficial wildfire●Beneficial fire moves up to at least 80% of total acres burnedCONFIDENTIAL19New Wildfire Futures
Decade FiveWHERE WE NEED TO GO2065-2075Manageable Opportunities to Valuable Opportunities●Community wildfire resiliency is at scale●Critical watersheds are secured, forests are stabilizing,ecosystems are healing●Wildfire has reached at least 90% beneficial balance withimpacts at acceptable, sustainable levelsCONFIDENTIAL20New Wildfire Futures
CONFIDENTIAL21New Wildfire FuturesThis work is alreadyunderway.We have some bright lights to guide us.
A Diverse Team is Leading the ChangeSOME EXAMPLES: A CONSTELLATION FOR CHANGECONFIDENTIAL22New Wildfire FuturesPROCESSTECHNOLOGYPOLICYPLANNINGEXECUTIONSTRATEGYCAL FIRECalifornia Fire Safe CouncilGBMF WildfireResilience InitiativeCalifornia Forest & FireAction Task ForceFireTech Groups& AcademiaEarth Fire AllianceFireWERXMegafire ActionAlliance for Wildfire ResilienceNewWildfireFutures
We can learn frompast progress.We’ve walked this path before.CONFIDENTIAL23New Wildfire Futures
California as a 50-year Case StudyLEARNING FROM PAST PROGRESSCONFIDENTIAL24New Wildfire FuturesPlanning,Land Use, & CodesResponse &FirefightingTechnologyPrevention,Mitigation &CommunityPrograms1970s - 1990sFoundations2000 - 2010sBasic Tools2020s - currentAlignmentWildfire enters land use planningState hazard zones mapped,Early defensible space rulesrefined, New wood roofs bannedThe fight gets organizedStrike teams, GIS, fixed-wingaircraftPrevention organizesStatewide messaging,first county-wide Fire Safe Councilforms, landscape fuelbreaksWUI Building CodesState hazard zones account forembers, regulated land use,WUI Building codes adoptedThe fight gets connectedInteroperable radios,camera networks, real-timefire intel, fire modelsMitigation becomes a focusFirewise communities, CWPPs,hundreds of FSC’s, state grantsfrom carbon creditsStatewide planningState hazard zones add local areas,Defensible space rules add zone zeroThe fight gets smarterDrones, satellites, AI decisionsupportScaling to statewideState Hazard Plan, State Forest andFIre Action Plan, County WildfireCoordinator Program
Planning,Land Use& CodesFrom reactive to proactive,from fragmented to coordinatedWE’VE DONE THIS BEFORE:California as a 50-year Study2000s - 2010s1970s - 1990s2020s - current●First hazard zone mapping●Stricter city/county vegetation management rules●Wildfire integrated into general plans and hazardmitigation plans●Fuel treatments, evacuation planning, and land-usedecisions align around high-risk communities●Counties integrate climate driven wildfire risk intomitigation plans●Some jurisdictions limit high-risk development●Local climate adaptation plans treat wildfire as a central risk●Some jurisdictions begin revising WUI land use policies anddevelopment standardsCONFIDENTIAL25New Wildfire Futures
Response &FirefightingTechnologyResponders organize and adoptsophisticated techWE’VE DONE THIS BEFORE:California as a 50 year Study2000s - 2010s1970s - 1990s2020s - current●Strike teams, task forces, and typed resources becomestandard, enabling more efficient multi-agency deployments●GIS becomes central to incident planning, perimeter tracking,and post-fire analysis●Fixed wing aircraft enter the fight●Radio interoperability and air attack coordination improvelarge-incident management●Camera networks provide real-time visual intelligence●Drones employed for scouting●New satellite networks deployed●AI analysis for better decision supportCONFIDENTIAL26New Wildfire Futures
Prevention,Mitigation &CommunityProgramsRandom acts of mitigation mature intocoordinated programsWE’VE DONE THIS BEFORE:California as a 50-year Study2000s - 2010s1970s - 1990s2020s - current●Counties begin requiring defensible clearance around homes●Enforcement and public awareness are limited butconceptually important●Early GIS tools support hazard mapping●CFSC expands grants and coordination●Firewise USA communities begin formalizingneighborhood-scale mitigation●Hundreds of CWPPs guide fuel treatments andevacuation planning●Home hardening becomes a grassroots effort●“Zone zero” challenges●County-level consolidation for scaling of programsCONFIDENTIAL27New Wildfire Futures
Current initiativesfocus on bettertechnology andcommunitymitigationWE’VE DONE THIS BEFORE:California as a 50-year Study●Community Mitigation○Evacuation Plans○Wildfire Preplans○Home Hardening/DSpace funding○Zone Zero Adoption●Halo fuelbreaks●Perimeter fuel management●Ignition reduction●Smoke preparedness●Fire and risk modeling●Fire technology innovations●Smarter suppression “Fire IntensityManagement” conceptCONFIDENTIAL28New Wildfire FuturesIn Progress
How can you be partof building the newfuture of wildfire?The next ten years are critical.CONFIDENTIAL29New Wildfire Futures
The NextSteps Beginwith YouWe are all linchpins in this planCONFIDENTIAL30New Wildfire Futures●Alert / Warning / Evac Tools●Community analysis to reduce riskof direct fire transmission andember ignitions●Resiliency Program planning tocreate, fund, implement, enforce,and maintain needed featuresover a 20-year period)●Fire Service Mitigation Training●Public Education●Building Codes●Land Use Planning1 of 2
●Evacuation Plans/Exercises●Wildfire Preplans●Home Hardening and D Space●Halo fuelbreaks●Perimeter fuel management●Ignition reduction●Smoke preparedness●Prescribed Fire Preplans●Post-fire Recovery Plans (Rebuildrequirements, economic planning,shelter and support)●Periodic public 5-year WildfireResiliency Outcome Report●Periodic public 5-year InsuranceReportThe NextSteps Beginwith YouWe are all linchpins in this planCONFIDENTIAL31New Wildfire Futures2 of 2
Fire will define thenext 50 yearsWe will define the fire.CONFIDENTIAL32New Wildfire Futures