August 2026

Handout: Our Future Depends on the Next 10 Years

NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF STATE FIRE MARSHALS CONFERENCE

FROM CRISIS TO RESILIENCENew Wildfire FuturesHow to deliver on a 50-year visionmoving from crisis to resilienceWe have an opportunity to shift the conversation and align action to create a different wildfirefuture, one in which communities are protected, destructive fire is diminished, and we bring ourecosystems back into balance with beneficial fire. We can choose that future.Getting there is a 50-year mission. But the next ten years will be the most critical. The plan has threestrategies: prepare and protect communities; smarter wildfire suppression; and focused resourcerestoration. Here’s what to prioritize in the near term:COMMUNITY MITIGATIONIdentify ember and fire pathway risks and create plans for critical programs including costestimates. Adopt WUI building codes. Engage fire service and residents in evacuation planning,home hardening, defensible space, and smoke preparedness. Have a wildfire recovery plan.SMARTER SUPPRESSIONCreate evacuation and wildfire pre-plans. Identify local fire ecology regimes and determinebeneficial fire needs. Incorporate this knowledge in both prescribed fire and emergencywildfire planning. Explore the concept of Fire Intensity Management as a suppression strategy.FOCUSED RESTORATIONIdentify critical watersheds, ecological vegetation needs, water infrastructure vulnerabilityand debris flow risks, and create landscape restoration plans for post-fire. Maintain re-growthand prevent invasives.Our future depends on whatyou do in the next ten years.New Wildfire Futures · NASFM · August 18, 2026KATE DARGAN MARQUIS

© 2026 Kate Dargan MarquisFire will define the next 50 years.We will define the fire.Want to learn more about the vision for New Wildfire Futures?Download today’s presentation.2025UnpredictableDisasters2035PredictableDisasters2045PredictableEvents2055ManageableEvents2065ManageableOpportunities2075ValuableOpportunitiesDecade One2025–2035•Fire behavior &community riskmodeling•Mitigationprograms &communitytargets•Fire technologyinnovations•Smarter suppres-sion with “FireIntensityManagement”Decade Two2035–2045•Scale prioritymitigations toreduce communityloss•Change the wild-fire narrative—less threat, moreopportunity•Focus on land-scape fuels incritical watersheds•Smarter suppres-sion keeps >60%of wildfire benefi-cialDecade Three2045–2055•More communi-ties begin to reach“herd immunity”•More wildfireacres burn safelywith less loss•Public openlysupportingwildfire needand value•Beneficial fireincreases to>70% of totalacres burnedDecade Four2055–2065•Mitigated commu-nities widespreadand lossesminimal•Critical water-sheds recoverhealthyfunctions•Widespreadpublic demand formore beneficialwildfire•Beneficial firemoves up to >80%of total acresDecade Five2065–2075•Community wildfireresiliency is at scale•Critical watershedsare secured;ecosystems arehealing•Beneficial fire hasreached >90%•Fire regimes havestabilized withsustainable levels ofimpact.WHERE WE NEED TO GOA 50-Year National MissionHere’s what’s possible if we build on that first ten years...Current Day2025•Billions of dollarsof costs•Millions of acresof ecologicallyextreme fire•Thousands ofstructuresdestroyed•Hundreds oflives los